Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has masked the lack of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author advocates unification or the existing arrangement. Both authors two articles that seek neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, duties, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "One side will prevail here and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Request for Broader Discussion
Westminster must engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."